Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson: Before Aug 1, 2028 · KXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson: Before Aug 1, 2028 is priced at 68¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 72¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
68¢ current
Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson: Before Aug 1, 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28
Jul 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
64¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
64 / 72¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28
Event family
KXSCOTUSCASE-GUEJON28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson: Before Aug 1, 2028 64¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 68% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.