Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota: Before Aug 1, 2028 · KXSCOTUSCASE-RNCMIF28
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota: Before Aug 1, 2028 is priced at 66¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 62¢ bid, 69¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
66¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, rules neither the National Voter Registration Act nor a federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship on its state voter-registration form, and that the Act does not bar Arizona from canceling noncitizens’ registrations within 90 days of a federal election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota: Before Aug 1, 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-RNCMIF28
Jul 26, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
62¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
62 / 69¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, rules neither the National Voter Registration Act nor a federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship on its state voter-registration form, and that the Act does not bar Arizona from canceling noncitizens’ registrations within 90 days of a federal election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-RNCMIF28
Event family
KXSCOTUSCASE-RNCMIF28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota: Before Aug 1, 2028 62¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.