Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas: Before Aug 1, 2028 · KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas: Before Aug 1, 2028 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
55¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Maxwell v. Thomas, rules a claim concerning the application of First Step Act time credits seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement may be brought through a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas: Before Aug 1, 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$200
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28
Jul 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$200
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Family volume
$200
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Maxwell v. Thomas, rules a claim concerning the application of First Step Act time credits seeking accelerated transfer to a halfway house or home confinement may be brought through a habeas petition under 28 U.S.C. § 2241, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28
Event family
KXSCOTUSCASE-MAXTHO28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$200
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas: Before Aug 1, 2028 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.