Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price generating an implausible 6450% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting thin liquidity ($849.69 open interest, $0 24h volume) and a wide 4¢ spread are distorting the contract value.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price generating an implausible 6450% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting thin liquidity ($849.69 open interest, $0 24h volume) and a wide 4¢ spread are distorting the contract value. The price has collapsed 36% over seven days from 11¢ to 7¢, indicating either shifting sentiment away from mid-range tariff outcomes or a lack of active traders to maintain fair pricing. With 75 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this contract appears undervalued relative to the probability of Canada tariffs settling in the 20-30% band, though the zero recent volume suggests extreme caution about execution risk.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 20 to 29.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-24 yes 100