Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $307.69, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $307.69, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 9224% implied yield on the Yes side signals either severe mispricing or that traders view a 30-39.99% tariff rate as extraordinarily unlikely, though the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days suggests modest bearish pressure. With 75 days to expiration and a 19 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquidity constraints.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATECAN-26JUL01-34 yes 100