SimpleFunctions

Toronto Maple Leafs · KXNHLPLAYOFF-27

Toronto Maple Leafs is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside KXNHLPLAYOFF-27.

Price history

47¢ current

45¢50¢
Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the Toronto Maple Leafs qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Toronto Maple Leafs

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Edmonton Oilers 87¢

Range

14¢-87¢

Family volume

$298

Identifier

KXNHLPLAYOFF-27-TOR

Aug 26, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

47¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 26, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

47¢

Ask

52¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNHLPLAYOFF-27

Closes

Apr 25, 2027

Family volume

$298

Orderbook snapshot

47 / 52¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100K
47¢2
46¢100
4¢639
2¢5.0K
AskSize
52¢5
53¢100
75¢444
93¢2.0K
95¢1.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Toronto Maple Leafs qualify for the playoffs in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Apr 25, 2027

Identifier

KXNHLPLAYOFF-27-TOR

SF Signal
SF Index
84.93
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

169.9%

IY (No)

133.6%

Adj IY

85%

CRI

1

Overround

14.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

169.9%
133.6%
Adj IY
85%
1
Overround
14.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.