Total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary above 1200000
Above 1.2M is priced at 74¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 67¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above.
Price history
74¢ current
Contract brief
If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1200000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1.2M
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Above 900k 92¢
Range
67¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1200000
Jun 23, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
67¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$40
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above
Closes
Aug 4, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
67 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary is above 1200000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 4, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1200000
Event family
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Above 900k 92¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.