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Before Oct 1, 2026 · Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before

Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 16¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before.

Price history

16¢ current

+13¢
0¢10¢20¢
Aug 24, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Contract brief

If the U.S. Department of Energy announces issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Oct 1, 2026

Rank

#3 of 3

Leader

Before Jan 1, 2028 61¢

Range

11¢-61¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXDOESPRTENDER-26AUG-26OCT01

Aug 27, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 51m ago

Implied probability

16¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 27, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 51m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

20¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#3 of 3

3 outcomes · Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 20¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
11¢5.3K
9¢1.1K
6¢200
3¢13
2¢2.1K
AskSize
20¢1.6K
59¢50
60¢1.2K
71¢2.0K
75¢600

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the U.S. Department of Energy announces issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Identifier

KXDOESPRTENDER-26AUG-26OCT01

SF Signal
SF Index
4214.62
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Before Jan 1, 2028 61¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

8429.2%

IY (No)

128.8%

Adj IY

4215%

CRI

8

Overround

0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8429.2%
128.8%
Adj IY
4215%
8
Overround
0.1%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.