Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 61% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2028
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
492 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before
Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXDOESPRTENDER-26AUG-26OCT01
Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXDOESPRTENDER-26AUG-28JAN01
Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXDOESPRTENDER-26AUG-27JAN01
Analysis
This probability reflects expectations that the U.S. Department of Energy will announce a solicitation to buy, exchange, or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by October 1, 2026—roughly five weeks away. The 7% probability suggests traders view such an announcement as unlikely in this short timeframe. SPR transactions depend on energy market conditions, administration policy, and congressional authorization. Oil prices, geopolitical disruptions, and budget decisions would typically drive timing. The main catalyst is whether DOE issues any formal solicitation notice before the deadline; current market activity and energy prices will inform this decision. The progressively higher probabilities for longer timeframes (7% by Jan 2027, 10% by Jan 2028) indicate traders expect such announcements remain possible but not imminent within weeks.
- ›Current crude oil price levels and market volatility—lower prices or energy supply concerns increase likelihood of SPR actions
- ›No announced SPR solicitation or policy statement from DOE as of late August 2026, suggesting low near-term probability
- ›Historical SPR transaction frequency and typical notice periods between authorization and public solicitation announcements
- ›Congressional appropriations or budget authority requirements that may precondition any SPR activity
- ›Geopolitical events or energy market disruptions that could accelerate DOE decision-making on emergency reserves
What moved the line
- Aug 26Before Jan 1, 2028↑36pp26→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Before Jan 1, 2028↑23pp3→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Before Jan 1, 2027↑15pp3→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Before Oct 1, 2026↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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