US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 above 10%
Above 10% is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 11 inside Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above.
Price history
16¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 10%
Rank
#7 of 11
Leader
Above 6% 79¢
Range
3¢-79¢
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T10
Sep 22, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$116
Family rank
#7 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above
Closes
Oct 29, 2026
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 29, 2026
Identifier
KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T10
Event family
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Above 6% 79¢
Current share
0%
Above 6%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T6
Above 3%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T3
Above 4%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T4
Above 5%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T5
Above 7%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T7
Above 8%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T8
Above 10%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T10
Above 13%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T13
Above 12%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T12
Above 11%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T11
Above 9%
kalshi · KXEFFTARIFF-26OCT29-T9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.