By 2030 · Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20
By 2030 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20.
Price history
12¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
By 2030
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
By 2030 12¢
Range
2¢-12¢
Family volume
$132
Identifier
USCLIMATE-2030
Jun 24, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$105
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
Family volume
$132
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the US has 3317.5 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
Identifier
USCLIMATE-2030
Event family
Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$132
Outcomes
2
Highest price
By 2030 12¢
Current share
79%
By 2030
kalshi · USCLIMATE-2030
By 2025
kalshi · USCLIMATE-2025
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.