By 2025 · Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20
By 2025 is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20.
Price history
6¢ current
Contract brief
If the US has 4909.9 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
By 2025
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
By 2030 11¢
Range
2¢-11¢
Family volume
$627
Identifier
USCLIMATE-2025
Jun 24, 2026, 1:18 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$27
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20
Closes
Dec 31, 2030
Family volume
$627
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the US has 4909.9 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2030
Identifier
USCLIMATE-2025
Event family
Will the US meet its climate goals?: By 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$627
Outcomes
2
Highest price
By 2030 11¢
Current share
4%
By 2030
kalshi · USCLIMATE-2030
By 2025
kalshi · USCLIMATE-2025
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.