Syria · Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning
Syria is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning.
Price history
12¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Syria after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Syria
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Uganda 50¢
Range
1¢-50¢
Family volume
$29
Identifier
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SYR
Jun 6, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$29
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Syria after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SYR
Event family
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Uganda 50¢
Current share
7%
Uganda
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-UGA
Democratic Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-DRC
Lebanon
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-LEB
Russia
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-RUS
Syria
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SYR
Iran
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-IRA
Haiti
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-HAI
Iraq
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-IRQ
Burma (Myanmar)
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-MYA
South Sudan
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SSUD
Afghanistan
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-AFG
Gaza
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-GAZ
Sudan
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SUD
Somalia
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SOM
Libya
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-LIB
North Korea
kalshi · KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-NKOR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.525
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.