Will The Weeknd be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will The Weeknd be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date .... This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3392% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues The Weeknd's chances of finishing #2 globally on 2026 Wrapped—a notably specific ranking requirement that makes the low probability more defensible than the yield suggests.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3392% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues The Weeknd's chances of finishing #2 globally on 2026 Wrapped—a notably specific ranking requirement that makes the low probability more defensible than the yield suggests. The $0 24-hour volume and $862 open interest indicate minimal liquidity, so the wide 7¢ spread likely reflects illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus, and any trade could substantially move the price. With 258 days to expiry and a moderate 24 cliff risk index, this appears to be a thin market where a single large bet could dramatically shift pricing.
Resolution rules
If The Weeknd is the #2 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-WEE yes 100