Yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026
4.3% or above is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 28¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.
Price history
98¢ current
+97¢Contract brief
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.29 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
4.3% or above
Rank
#1 of 11
Leader
4.3% or above 70¢
Range
1¢-70¢
Family volume
$155
Identifier
KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.29
Jun 26, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
70¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
28¢
Reported volume
$522
Family rank
#1 of 11
11 outcomes · Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$155
Orderbook snapshot
70 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. treasury note is above 4.29 % on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.29
Event family
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$155
Outcomes
11
Highest price
4.3% or above 70¢
Current share
0%
4.3% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.29
4.25% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.24
4.35% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.34
4.4% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.39
4.45% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.44
4.65% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.64
4.75% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.74
4.5% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.49
4.7% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.69
4.6% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.59
4.55% or above
kalshi · KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.54
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.