Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026
Leader sits at 43% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.25% or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
4.3% or above
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.24 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.24
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.34 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.35% or above
KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.34
Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 4.29 on Jun 30, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXNOTE10M-26JUN30-T4.29
What moved the line
- Jun 224.25% or above↑44pp5→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 224.3% or above↑42pp5→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 214.35% or above↓38pp93→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 234.3% or above↑33pp47→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 234.25% or above↑32pp49→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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