1+ holes-in-one · KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26
1+ holes-in-one is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26.
Price history
49¢ current
+47¢Contract brief
If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the Travelers Championship originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
1+ holes-in-one
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
1+ holes-in-one 49¢
Range
1¢-49¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26-1
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
56¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 56¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the Travelers Championship originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26-1
Event family
KXPGAHOLEINONE-TRAV26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
1+ holes-in-one 49¢
Current share
45%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.