Starts · KXRECSSNBER-26
Starts is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Starts
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXRECSSNBER-26
Aug 10, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
Identifier
KXRECSSNBER-26
Event family
KXRECSSNBER-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Starts 7¢
Current share
100%
Starts
kalshi · KXRECSSNBER-26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.