What is the current probability for "Will there be a recession in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 31, 2027. 276 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will there be a recession in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 396.4% and 44.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will there be a recession in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will there be a recession in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will there be a recession in 2026?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 31, 2027. The recession probability has declined sharply from 27¢ to 23¢ over seven days, now trading at a 2¢ discount to Polymarket (26¢), suggesting recent economic data may have improved sentiment.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 25/27¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $39,949.85·OI $674,587.23·Closes Jan 31, 2027·276d remaining

KXRECSSNBER-26

7-day price146 snapshots · 125 regime

33¢25¢ current

Apr 819¢Apr 30

Analysis

11d ago

The recession probability has declined sharply from 27¢ to 23¢ over seven days, now trading at a 2¢ discount to Polymarket (26¢), suggesting recent economic data may have improved sentiment. The Yes position offers an extreme 425% implied yield with moderate 24h volume of $36k against $634k open interest, indicating asymmetric payoff appeal but relatively thin liquidity for the contract size. With 288 days to expiry and a 3/10 cliff risk index, the market is pricing in low near-term recession risk, though the 219% realized volatility warrants caution on directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 396.4%

IY (No) 44.0%

Adj IY 365%

CRI 3

RV 268%

VR 1.29

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	396.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	365%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	268%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.29	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 8:34:09 AM

SF edge 16.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type data_release

Edges (1)

NO +16¢thesis — Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 8:23:52 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRECSSNBER-26 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →