At least 8 presidential actions in the week of Jul 12, 2026
At least 8 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 10 inside Will there be at least.
Price history
55¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken at least 8 presidential actions from Jul 12, 2026 through Jul 18, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 19, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 8
Rank
#7 of 10
Leader
At least 1 99¢
Range
3¢-99¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T8
Jul 16, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
53¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$738
Family rank
#7 of 10
10 outcomes · Will there be at least
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
53 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken at least 8 presidential actions from Jul 12, 2026 through Jul 18, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 19, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T8
Event family
Will there be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
At least 1 99¢
Current share
17%
At least 1
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T1
At least 2
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T2
At least 3
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T3
At least 4
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T4
At least 5
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T5
At least 7
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T7
At least 8
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T8
At least 9
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T9
At least 10
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T10
At least 15
kalshi · KXTRUMPACT-26JUL12-T15
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.