More than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026
Above 100 is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
87¢ current
+85¢Contract brief
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 100
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Above 100 89¢
Range
1¢-89¢
Family volume
$70K
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T100
Jul 8, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
Family volume
$70K
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T100
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$70K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above 100 89¢
Current share
6%
Above 100
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T100
Above 125
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T125
Above 150
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150
Above 175
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T175
Above 200
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T200
Above 225
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T225
Above 250
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T250
Above 275
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T275
Above 300
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T300
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.