More than 7 hurricanes of category 1 or above in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Above 7 is priced at 79¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
79¢ current
+39¢Contract brief
If more than 7 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 7
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Above 5 91¢
Range
12¢-91¢
Family volume
$14
Identifier
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-7
Jun 3, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$14
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If more than 7 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-7
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above 5 91¢
Current share
0%
Above 5
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-5
Above 6
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-6
Above 7
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-7
Above 8
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-8
Above 9
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-9
Above 10
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-10
Above 11
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-11
Above 12
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-12
Above 13
kalshi · KXHURRICANE-26DEC01EPACTOT-13
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 79% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.