Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 50¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before.
Price history
50¢ current
Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 49¢
Range
4¢-49¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-JAN01
Sep 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 46m ago
Implied probability
Bid
49¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
49 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-JAN01
Event family
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 49¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-OCT01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity
Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.