Before Oct 1, 2026 · Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before
Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 49¢
Range
3¢-49¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-OCT01
Sep 23, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken any presidential action reducing, removing, or suspending an existing tariff on imports from Canada, with a specified effective date, through a new policy decision officially announced by Donald Trump after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-OCT01
Event family
Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 49¢
Current share
100%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSCANADATARIFFDOWN-26SEP21-OCT01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.