Before Jan 20, 2029 · Will Trump recognize
Before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Trump recognize.
Price history
12¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 12¢
Range
4¢-12¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXRECOGROC-29
Jun 25, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$28K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Trump recognize
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXRECOGROC-29
Event family
Will Trump recognize.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 12¢
Current share
—
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXRECOGROC-29
Before 2027
kalshi · KXRECOGROC-29-27
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 12% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.