Before 2027 · Will Trump recognize
Before 2027 is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Trump recognize.
Price history
3¢ current
Contract brief
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 17¢
Range
4¢-17¢
Family volume
$566
Identifier
KXRECOGROC-29-27
Jun 21, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Trump recognize
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$566
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRECOGROC-29-27
Event family
Will Trump recognize.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$566
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 17¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXRECOGROC-29
Before 2027
kalshi · KXRECOGROC-29-27
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.