United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 49.25 million passengers in Q3 2026
Above 49.25 million is priced at 81¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 78¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above.
Price history
81¢ current
+65¢Contract brief
If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 49250000.0 passengers in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 49.25 million
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Above 47.75 million 94¢
Range
12¢-94¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49250000.0
Jul 26, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above
Closes
Feb 12, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 49250000.0 passengers in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 12, 2027
Identifier
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49250000.0
Event family
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 47.75 million 94¢
Current share
—
Above 47.75 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-47750000.0
Above 48 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48000000.0
Above 48.25 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48250000.0
Above 48.5 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48500000.0
Above 48.75 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48750000.0
Above 49 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49000000.0
Above 49.25 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49250000.0
Above 49.5 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49500000.0
Above 49.75 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49750000.0
Above 50 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50000000.0
Above 50.25 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50250000.0
Above 50.5 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50500000.0
Above 50.75 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50750000.0
Above 51 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51000000.0
Above 51.25 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51250000.0
Above 51.5 million
kalshi · KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51500000.0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.