Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 41 million passengers in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 85% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 45 million
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Above 45.5 million
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$38
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 14, 2026
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 4
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-48000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-45000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-46500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47.5 million
KXUAL-26JULPAX-47500000.0
What moved the line
- Apr 26Above 47.5 million↑10pp32→42¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Above 47 million↓8pp54→46¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Above 46.5 million↑8pp58→66¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Above 47 million↑7pp47→54¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Above 47.5 million↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.