Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 41 million passengers in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 47.75 million
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 48 million
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$219
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 12, 2027
186 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 50.5 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 50.5 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 50.75 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 50.75 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50750000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 50 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 50 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 50.25 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 50.25 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-50250000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 52 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 52 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-52000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 51.75 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 51.75 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51750000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 51.5 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 51.5 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 51.25 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 51.25 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51250000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 51 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 51 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-51000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 49.75 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 49.75 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49750000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 49.5 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 49.5 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 49.25 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 49.25 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49250000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 49 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 49 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-49000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.75 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 48.75 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48750000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 48.5 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48500000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.25 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 48.25 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48250000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 48 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-48000000.0
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.75 million passengers in Q3 2026?: Above 47.75 million
KXUAL-26OCTPAX-47750000.0
Analysis
Markets currently estimate a 91% probability that United Airlines will report above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026. This represents strong confidence in sustained passenger demand at United's scale during the second quarter. The probability reflects two main dynamics: historical passenger volumes at major U.S. carriers typically exceed 45 million in Q2 due to peak summer travel season, and United's recent operational performance suggests capacity to handle elevated demand. However, the market shows declining confidence for higher thresholds—only 50% confidence in exceeding 48 million passengers—indicating uncertainty about capacity constraints or demand softness. The contract will resolve when United reports Q2 2026 earnings, expected in late July or early August 2026. Key variables analysts are monitoring include actual booking trends through June, fuel costs affecting pricing strategies, and any operational disruptions that could reduce available seat-miles.
- ›Seasonal demand patterns: Q2 historically shows peak leisure travel, typically driving major carrier passenger volumes above 45 million when capacity is sufficient
- ›Capacity management: United's fleet size and staffing levels in Q2 2026 will directly constrain maximum achievable passengers
- ›Competitive pricing environment: Airfare levels and load factors depend on industry-wide capacity relative to demand, affecting whether 45 million is reached
- ›Operational reliability: Maintenance issues, staffing shortages, or weather disruptions could reduce available flights and passenger throughput
- ›Economic sensitivity: Recession, unemployment changes, or discretionary spending weakness between now and Q2 would reduce leisure and business travel demand
What moved the line
- Aug 7Above 47.75 million↓45pp95→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Above 48.5 million↑11pp80→91¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Above 49 million↑11pp75→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Above 50.25 million↑10pp50→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above 48 million↓10pp94→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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