United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 above 1.0%
Above 1.0% is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above.
Price history
7¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1.0%
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
Above 0.0% 74¢
Range
1¢-74¢
Family volume
$217
Identifier
KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T1.0
Jun 25, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$480
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
Family volume
$217
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 16, 2026
Identifier
KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T1.0
Event family
Will United States retail sales MoM for June 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$217
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 0.0% 74¢
Current share
0%
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T0.0
Above 0.2%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T0.2
Above 0.4%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T0.4
Above 0.6%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T0.6
Above 0.8%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T0.8
Above 1.0%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T1.0
Above 1.2%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T1.2
Above 1.4%
kalshi · KXUSRETAIL-26JUL16-T1.4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.