U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 greater than $5M
in 2026 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 48¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
55¢ current
+31¢Contract brief
If the "TOTAL 2026" value for Imports on the U.S. Census Bureau "Trade in goods with Iran" table (values in millions of U.S. dollars) for 2026 is greater than 5.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXIRANIMPORTS-27FEB01-T5000000
Jun 25, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
48¢
Ask
58¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
48 / 58¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the "TOTAL 2026" value for Imports on the U.S. Census Bureau "Trade in goods with Iran" table (values in millions of U.S. dollars) for 2026 is greater than 5.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXIRANIMPORTS-27FEB01-T5000000
Event family
KXIRANIMPORTS-27FEB01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
1
Highest price
in 2026 48¢
Current share
100%
in 2026
kalshi · KXIRANIMPORTS-27FEB01-T5000000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
Read 55% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.