Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing February 4, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1,429% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1,429% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ bid-ask spread is substantial relative to the contract value, and the recent downward price movement from 10¢ to 8¢ suggests weak conviction among the few participants. Given that U.S.-China imports totaled approximately $380 billion in 2023-2024, a drop below $220 billion would require a dramatic 42% contraction, making the 18% probability seem plausible on fundamentals despite the market's negligible trading activity.
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $220 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T220 yes 100