Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing February 4, 2027. This market shows severe illiquidity with only $54 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 124.3% implied yield on both sides.
Analysis
This market shows severe illiquidity with only $54 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable despite the symmetric 124.3% implied yield on both sides. The recent 6¢ downward price movement over seven days suggests weakening conviction in sub-$260 billion imports, though with minimal trading activity this could reflect thin-market noise rather than genuine sentiment shift. With 294 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should demand significant liquidity improvement before treating this as a reliable probability estimate for 2026 China import levels.
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $260 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T260 yes 100