US new home sales for June 2026 above 520,000
Above 520,000 is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above.
Price history
51¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 520,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 520,000
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Above 520,000 78¢
Range
20¢-78¢
Family volume
$224
Identifier
KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T520000
Jun 24, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$27
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Family volume
$224
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 85¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 520,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Identifier
KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T520000
Event family
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$224
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 520,000 78¢
Current share
12%
Above 520,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T520000
Above 540,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T540000
Above 560,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T560000
Above 580,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T580000
Above 600,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T600000
Above 620,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T620000
Above 640,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T640000
Above 660,000
kalshi · KXNHSALES-26JUL24-T660000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.