Will US new home sales for March 2026 be above 620,000

30-day trend

Analysis

The market is pricing a 94% probability that US new home sales in March 2026 exceeded 620,000 units, based on trading activity across eight related contracts. This reflects relatively strong confidence in housing starts remaining elevated, though the contract structure reveals meaningful uncertainty at higher thresholds—the probability drops to 83% for 620,000 units and 62% for 640,000 units. Housing sales data depends on mortgage rates, builder inventory levels, and consumer demand, which can shift significantly month-to-month. The Census Bureau releases March sales figures typically in late April or early May, providing the definitive resolution point. Traders appear to be pricing in resilience in the housing market, though the declining confidence at higher sales levels suggests expectations of moderation rather than acceleration from recent trends.

• ›Mortgage rates in early 2026 relative to the prior 12 months—higher rates would reduce affordability and pressure sales below the threshold
• ›Builder inventory levels and new-home availability, which determine how many units can actually be sold
• ›Consumer income growth and employment conditions in Q1 2026, which drive demand for new housing purchases
• ›Seasonal patterns in March home sales compared to historical averages for that month
• ›Actual Census Bureau release of March 2026 new home sales data, expected in late April or early May 2026

What moved the line

• Jun 22Above 680,000↓7pp36→29¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 640,000↓4pp77→73¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Above 640,000↓4pp73→69¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Above 640,000↑4pp69→73¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Above 620,000↑4pp83→87¢ · Kalshi

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