Will US test scores in Math decline
No significant difference is priced at 52¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will US test scores in Math decline.
Price history
52¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced No significant difference in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
No significant difference
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
No significant difference 47¢
Range
8¢-47¢
Family volume
$231
Identifier
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-NSD
Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$9
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will US test scores in Math decline
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$231
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 53¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced No significant difference in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-NSD
Event family
Will US test scores in Math decline.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$231
Outcomes
3
Highest price
No significant difference 47¢
Current share
44%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.