Will US test scores in Math decline
Leader sits at 70% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Significant decrease
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
No significant difference
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$217
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
601 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US test scores in Math decline
Will US test scores in Math decline?: No significant difference
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-NSD
Will US test scores in Math decline?: Significant decrease
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-SD
Will US test scores in Math decline?: Significant increase
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-SI
Analysis
The current 57% probability indicates that markets view a decline in US Math test scores as more likely than not over the specified timeframe. This assessment reflects ongoing concerns about educational outcomes, potential curriculum changes, and shifts in student preparation methods. The probability level suggests genuine uncertainty rather than consensus—nearly half the probability mass sits on no decline occurring. Key drivers include recent standardized test data trends, the implementation of new educational policies, and macroeconomic factors affecting school resources. Resolution will depend on official test score releases from organizations like NAEP or state education departments, which typically occur on announced schedules throughout 2026. The specific threshold and comparison period will determine whether this resolves affirmatively.
- ›Historical trend direction: Recent NAEP and state standardized test results show whether Math scores have been declining, stable, or improving in the years leading to 2026
- ›Policy and curriculum changes: Implementation of new educational standards, teaching methodologies, or assessment structures that could measurably affect performance
- ›School resource allocation: Funding levels, teacher availability, and investment in STEM programs that directly influence instructional quality
- ›Student demographics and test participation: Changes in the population taking tests and baseline preparation levels that affect aggregate score comparisons
- ›Official data release dates: When authoritative test results become available to settle the prediction, typically through education department publications or NAEP reporting cycles
What moved the line
- May 6Significant decrease↑12pp57→69¢ · Kalshi
- May 8No significant difference↓6pp29→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 6No significant difference↓4pp30→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 7No significant difference↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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