Will US test scores in Math decline
No significant difference is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will US test scores in Math decline.
Price history
50¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced No significant difference in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
No significant difference
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
No significant difference 50¢
Range
8¢-50¢
Family volume
$20
Identifier
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-NSD
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will US test scores in Math decline
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$20
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If US average test scores for eighth graders experienced No significant difference in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXUSTESTSMATH-26-NSD
Event family
Will US test scores in Math decline.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20
Outcomes
3
Highest price
No significant difference 50¢
Current share
55%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.