Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September at least 800K bpd
At least 800K bpd is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least.
Price history
95¢ current
+49¢Contract brief
If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 800K bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 800K bpd
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
At least 800K bpd 94¢
Range
2¢-94¢
Family volume
$25
Identifier
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T800000
Sep 7, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$36
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least
Closes
Oct 13, 2026
Family volume
$25
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 800K bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 13, 2026
Identifier
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T800000
Event family
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 800K bpd 94¢
Current share
0%
At least 800K bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T800000
At least 900K bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T900000
At least 1.0M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1000000
At least 1.1M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1100000
At least 1.2M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1200000
At least 1.3M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1300000
At least 1.4M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1400000
At least 1.5M bpd
kalshi · KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1500000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.