Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd
Leader sits at 94% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 800K bpd
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
At least 900K bpd
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 13, 2026
36 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?: At least 1.0M bpd
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1000000
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?: At least 900K bpd
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T900000
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?: At least 800K bpd
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T800000
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?: At least 1.2M bpd
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1200000
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?: At least 1.1M bpd
KXVENEZCRUDE-26OCT13-T1100000
Analysis
This contract settles based on Venezuela's official average crude oil production throughout September 2026. At 45%, markets are pricing near-even odds that output reaches or exceeds 900,000 barrels per day for the month. Venezuela's production has fluctuated significantly in recent years due to infrastructure constraints, maintenance cycles, and international sanctions effects. The outcome depends on whether current operational capacity can sustain this threshold, which sits between recent historical lows and periods of higher output. Resolution will occur when September data is reported, typically in early October through official Venezuelan or international energy agency figures.
- ›Current Venezuelan crude output run-rate relative to 900K bpd baseline—whether recent weeks show production trending above, below, or approaching this level
- ›Status of major oil facilities and refineries, particularly any unplanned downtime or maintenance that could disrupt daily output during September
- ›International crude-for-fuel swap arrangements or sanctions relief developments that directly affect Venezuela's production capacity or export capability
- ›Historical volatility in reported Venezuelan production figures and the reliability of data sources used for contract settlement
- ›The contract's relationship to lower thresholds (800K bpd at 46¢) and higher tiers (1.0M bpd at 36¢), indicating market uncertainty is concentrated in the 800K–1.0M range
What moved the line
- Sep 5At least 1.0M bpd↑42pp46→88¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6At least 800K bpd↑36pp58→94¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5At least 900K bpd↑27pp67→94¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 5At least 1.1M bpd↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6At least 1.1M bpd↓4pp42→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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