SimpleFunctions

Villanova · KXMARMADSEED-27T5

Villanova is priced at 30¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 30¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside KXMARMADSEED-27T5.

Price history

30¢ current

+18¢
10¢20¢30¢
Aug 24, 2026Sep 19, 2026

Contract brief

If the Villanova men's college basketball team is selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Villanova

Rank

#10 of 16

Leader

Duke 78¢

Range

2¢-78¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXMARMADSEED-27T5-VILL

Sep 22, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

30¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Sep 22, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

45¢

Spread

30¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#10 of 16

16 outcomes · KXMARMADSEED-27T5

Closes

May 2, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 45¢

Kalshi
30¢ spread
BidSize
15¢38
AskSize
45¢38
97¢5

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Villanova men's college basketball team is selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 2, 2027

Identifier

KXMARMADSEED-27T5-VILL

SF Signal
SF Index
465.99
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

932.0%

IY (No)

29.0%

Adj IY

466%

CRI

6

Overround

10.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

932.0%
29.0%
Adj IY
466%
6
Overround
10.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.