Will Texas be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
May 2, 2027
221 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Virginia” vs “Will Creighton be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Virginia
Will Virginia be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Virginia
KXMARMADSEED-27T5-UVA
Will Virginia Tech be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Virginia Tech
KXMARMADSEED-27T5-VT
Cluster 2
Will Creighton be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 3
Will Marquette be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 4
Will St. John's be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 5
Will UConn be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 6
Will Villanova be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 7
Will Louisville be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 8
Will Clemson be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 9
Will Miami (FL) be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 10
Will Duke be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 11
Will NC St. be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 12
Will Houston be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 13
Will BYU be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 14
Will Texas Tech be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 15
Will Kansas be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 16
Will Iowa St. be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 17
Will Arizona be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 18
Will Purdue be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Cluster 19
Will Michigan be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that the University of Texas men's basketball team will receive a top-5 seed (1-5) in the NCAA Division I Tournament selection on March 17, 2027. The 43% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Texas will finish among the nation's strongest teams by tournament time. The current level likely reflects Texas's recent trajectory in the Big 12 Conference and national rankings, balanced against the difficulty of maintaining elite status through the remainder of the regular season and conference tournament. Several factors could shift this probability: significant win/loss streaks during the 2026-27 season, changes in roster health or player availability, and tournament performance in March would all influence the actual selection committee's seeding decision. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be the official NCAA tournament selection announcement in mid-March 2027, when seeds are officially assigned based on the committee's evaluation of teams' performance, strength of schedule, and other metrics.
- ›Texas's conference record and winning percentage through the 2026-27 regular season and Big 12 tournament
- ›Strength of schedule results, including performance against ranked opponents and tournament-quality teams
- ›Comparison to other major conference teams projected for top seeds (Florida at 61¢, Arizona at 18-32¢ range suggest competitive field)
- ›Player health and roster continuity through January-March 2027
- ›The NCAA selection committee's evaluation criteria applied consistently across all 68-team tournament field on March 17, 2027
What moved the line
- Sep 17Michigan↑16pp35→51¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Michigan↓15pp51→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Michigan↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Villanova↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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