Warren Buffett · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33
Warren Buffett is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 12 inside KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33.
Price history
5¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Forbes reports that Warren Buffett has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Warren Buffett
Rank
#9 of 12
Leader
Mark Zuckerberg 18¢
Range
3¢-18¢
Family volume
$843
Identifier
KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-WB
Jun 26, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$32
Family rank
#9 of 12
12 outcomes · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33
Closes
Jan 1, 2033
Family volume
$843
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Forbes reports that Warren Buffett has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2033
Identifier
KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-WB
Event family
KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$843
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Mark Zuckerberg 18¢
Current share
4%
Mark Zuckerberg
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-MZ
Jensen Huang
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-JH
Sergey Brin
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-SRB
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-JB
Michael Dell
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-MD
Bernard Arnault & family
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-BA
Changpeng Zhao
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-CZ
Sam Altman
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-SA
Warren Buffett
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-WB
Larry Page
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-LP
Larry Ellison
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-LE
Steve Ballmer
kalshi · KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-SB
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 5% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.