SimpleFunctions

West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 above 78 million short tons

Above 78 million short tons is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 23¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above.

Price history

55¢ current

3¢
55¢60¢
Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

Contract brief

If EIA reports West Virginia’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 is above 78 million short tons, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 78 million short tons

Rank

#4 of 7

Leader

Above 72 million short tons 95¢

Range

4¢-95¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T78

Aug 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

55¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

27¢

Ask

50¢

Spread

23¢

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#4 of 7

7 outcomes · Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above

Closes

Apr 1, 2027

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

27 / 50¢

Kalshi
23¢ spread
BidSize
27¢80
26¢1.1K
25¢300
5¢46
4¢213
AskSize
50¢100
51¢1.7K
53¢250
62¢150
64¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If EIA reports West Virginia’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 is above 78 million short tons, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Apr 1, 2027

Identifier

KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T78

SF Signal
SF Index
8.28
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

447.5%

IY (No)

61.2%

Adj IY

8%

CRI

3

Overround

1.8%

LAS

0.96

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

447.5%
61.2%
Adj IY
8%
3
Overround
1.8%
LAS
0.96

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.