Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons
Leader sits at 95% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 72 million short tons
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 74 million short tons
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
220 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 82 million short tons?: Above 82 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T82
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 78 million short tons?: Above 78 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T78
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 74 million short tons?: Above 74 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T74
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 80 million short tons?: Above 80 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T80
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 76 million short tons?: Above 76 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T76
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 84 million short tons?: Above 84 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T84
Will West Virginia’s total coal production for 2026 be above 72 million short tons?: Above 72 million short tons
KXWVCOAL-27APR01-T72
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that West Virginia will exceed 74 million short tons of coal production in 2026. The high 89% probability suggests traders believe output will remain above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher production levels (76%, 61%, 21%) indicate uncertainty about whether production will substantially exceed the baseline. Coal production depends on demand from electric utilities and industrial users, which is sensitive to natural gas prices, electricity consumption patterns, and regulatory changes affecting coal-fired power plants. The primary driver of resolution will be the actual 2026 production figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, typically reported in early 2027. Current market positioning suggests confidence in sustained output but tempered expectations for significant growth.
- ›West Virginia's 2025 coal production and trend trajectory relative to the 74 million short ton benchmark
- ›Natural gas prices and their competitive effect on coal-fired electricity generation economics
- ›Retirement or operational status of major coal-fired power plants in West Virginia's key customer regions
- ›Aggregate U.S. electricity demand growth or contraction in 2026 compared to recent years
- ›Changes to federal or state energy policy affecting coal generation dispatch or mining operations
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 80 million short tons↑4pp22→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 80 million short tons↓4pp26→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 82 million short tons↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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