Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?
This contract is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 8¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$304
Best sibling
Before July 14¢
Ticker
KXGROK-GROK5-26OCT01
Market snapshot
Before October in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?. The displayed quote is 88¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $55. In the Will xAI release Grok 5 before family, this outcome ranks #2 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Before October
Family rank
#2 of 3
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
88¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Oct 1, 2026
24h volume
$55
Family context
3 outcomes · Will xAI release Grok 5 before
Quote range
14¢-86¢
Family leader
Before 2027 86¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Venue identifier: KXGROK-GROK5-26OCT01. Family volume: $304.
Price history
88¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
80 / 88¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXGROK-GROK5-26OCT01
Event family
Will xAI release Grok 5 before.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$304
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before 2027 86¢
Current share
18%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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