Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 68% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Before October
Spread
63pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$987
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will xAI release Grok 5 before
Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before October
KXGROK-GROK5-26OCT01
Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027
KXGROK-GROK5-27JAN01
Will xAI release Grok 5 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before September
KXGROK-GROK5-26SEP01
Analysis
The current 77% probability reflects market expectation that xAI will release Grok 5 before January 1, 2027—roughly 6 months from now. This high confidence is likely driven by xAI's demonstrated release cadence and Elon Musk's public development timelines, though the notably lower 55% probability for an October 1 release suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the timeline compresses further. The primary driver of this probability level is xAI's stated product roadmap and historical release velocity; it could shift significantly if the company publicly commits to or delays a specific launch date, or if technical challenges emerge during development. The October 1 contract serves as the key near-term catalyst—if Grok 5 launches before then, the January contract would likely approach 100%, while a miss could force downward repricing.
- ›xAI has not publicly announced a specific Grok 5 release date; any official commitment would materially inform market pricing
- ›The 22-point gap between October (55%) and January (77%) reflects belief in plausible delivery within the 6-month window but uncertainty about the 3-month accelerated timeline
- ›Release velocity of prior Grok versions and Musk's historical track record on announced timelines are embedded in current pricing
- ›No major technical or funding obstacles have been publicly disclosed that would prevent a late-2026 release
- ›The 24h volume on the January contract ($6) is substantially lower than the October contract ($781), suggesting the October date is the more liquid, closely-watched milestone
What moved the line
- Aug 20Before 2027↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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