Will Yair Lapid become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Yair Lapid become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 2112.7% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 2112.7% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 5¢ price reflects a very low probability assessment of Lapid's path to the premiership, though the recent price movement from 2¢ to 3¢ over seven days suggests modest accumulating interest despite the negligible trading activity. With 559 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, the market has sufficient time for political developments in Israel to shift sentiment, but traders should be cautious given the severe lack of liquidity for position entry or exit.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-YLAP yes 100