Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing October 27, 2027. This illiquid micro-market with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 24% probability for Bennett becoming PM, though the extreme 218.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the pricing may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market with only $39 open interest and zero 24-hour volume shows a 24% probability for Bennett becoming PM, though the extreme 218.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the pricing may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The modest 2-cent spread and recent price stability (21¢ to 23¢ over 7 days) indicate minimal trading activity, making this contract unreliable for serious position-taking despite the 559-day runway to the October 2027 resolution date.
Also on polymarket at 30¢(Δ -3¢)
Resolution rules
If Naftali Bennett becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-NBEN yes 100