SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate37 markets

Will Acro Canine Crew win America's Got Talent Season 21

event base · KXAGTWINNER

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 21 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$32.8K
Constituents
37
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
36.0%
Nene Royal

Outcome probabilities

37 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve for KXAGTWINNER displays a completely flat structure, with all 37 constituent markets sharing an identical 41-day tenor to resolution on September 26, 2024. This flat tenor profile prevents traditional yield-curve analysis of steepening or flattening dynamics. Within this single bucket, probabilities cluster heavily at the 1.0% floor, with only six markets commanding materially higher odds: HUN at 14.0%, NEN at 4.0%, ACR and LAR tied at 3.0%, and BET, LAI, LARU, ROY, and VER ranging between 2.0% and 5.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities are the 1.0% floor, which encompasses 28 of 37 markets. Trading volume concentrates in the higher-probability names and several floor-priced contracts, with HUN, VER, and RUB showing the strongest 24-hour activity. The market's current structure suggests extreme concentration of event probability on a small subset of outcomes, with the HUN contract commanding 14% odds while the median market trades at the 1.0% minimum. This distribution implies the market views the event as highly unlikely to occur overall, but conditionally assigns meaningful probability mass to a narrow set of specific scenarios. The flat tenor structure—with no longer-dated markets available—prevents assessment of whether the market expects resolution timing uncertainty or simply reflects a near-term event window. The high volume in floor-priced contracts alongside concentrated activity in HUN and VER suggests active disagreement about which specific outcome will materialize, rather than consensus that the event won't happen at all.

Generated 8/21/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

37 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Nene Royal win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Nene Royal5w36.0%$4.5K
Will Hundred Fingers win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Hundred Fingers5w11.0%$702
Will Acro Canine Crew win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Acro Canine Crew5w2.0%$452
Will Olivia Befus win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Olivia Befus5w2.0%$963
Will Royal Lasers win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Royal Lasers5w2.0%$503
Will Akira win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Akira5w1.0%$452
Will Bety win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Bety5w1.0%$1.5K
Will Bird and Byron win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Bird and Byron5w1.0%$452
Will Brad & Tracy win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Brad & Tracy5w1.0%$955
Will Butter & Grit win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Butter & Grit5w1.0%$933
Will Cameron Logsdon win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Cameron Logsdon5w1.0%$452
Will Cesar Dias win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Cesar Dias5w1.0%$452
Will Come Here win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Come Here5w1.0%$920
Will Daniel Alvarez win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Daniel Alvarez5w1.0%$452
Will Elsie win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Elsie5w1.0%$452
Will Geno Ploeger win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Geno Ploeger5w1.0%$3.6K
Will Guy Kelton Jones I win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Guy Kelton Jones I5w1.0%$452
Will Herwan Legaillard win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Herwan Legaillard5w1.0%$452
Will Holland & Sienna win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Holland & Sienna5w1.0%$452
Will Isaac Atkins win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Isaac Atkins5w1.0%$452
Will Jesse Joe win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Jesse Joe5w1.0%$452
Will Kameron Marshall win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Kameron Marshall5w1.0%$920
Will Lai Noelle win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Lai Noelle5w1.0%$452
Will Lara D win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Lara D5w1.0%$452
Will LaRussell win America's Got Talent Season 21?: LaRussell5w1.0%$1.1K
Will Luke Taleno win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Luke Taleno5w1.0%$463
Will Mackenzie Sol win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Mackenzie Sol5w1.0%$1.2K
Will Maria win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Maria5w1.0%$452
Will Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm5w1.0%$1.6K
Will Patrox win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Patrox5w1.0%$452
Will Pynk Beard win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Pynk Beard5w1.0%$452
Will Rubén Roldán win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Rubén Roldán5w1.0%$452
Will Travis Garland win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Travis Garland5w1.0%$1.7K
Will Tyrone & Margo win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Tyrone & Margo5w1.0%$452
Will Unitree win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Unitree5w1.0%$452
Will Veronika Goroshkova win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Veronika Goroshkova5w1.0%$1.9K
Will Young & Strange win America's Got Talent Season 21?: Young & Strange5w1.0%$452

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXAGTWINNER on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 06:24:57 GMT.