Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open Men's Singles

The yield curve for KXATP exhibits a completely flat structure, with all 35 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 34 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display extreme dispersion rather than a traditional curve shape. The cheapest YES probability is 1.0%, represented by 22 markets including KXATP-26USO-BUB, KXATP-26USO-CER, KXATP-26USO-DE, and numerous others, while the most expensive is 30.0% for KXATP-26USO-ALC. This wide spread—ranging from 1% to 30%—suggests these markets are pricing fundamentally different outcomes or conditions within the same event family, rather than reflecting different time horizons. The highest-probability markets cluster around ALC (30%), ZVE (19%), SHE (7%), DJO (9%), and JOD (5%), while the vast majority trade at the 1-2% floor. The flat tenor structure combined with this probability dispersion indicates the market is not expressing uncertainty about *when* an event occurs, but rather *which specific outcome or condition* materializes within the fixed 34-day window. The clustering of 22 markets at 1% suggests these represent tail scenarios or low-probability contingencies that traders view as unlikely, while the concentration of volume and higher probabilities in ALC, DJO, NAK, and FON indicates these are the primary outcomes the market expects to resolve within this month. The absence of a traditional yield curve shape means this event family is structured around discrete, mutually exclusive outcomes rather than a continuous variable with term structure implications.