SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate33 markets

Will Bruno Fernandes lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season

event base · KXEPLLEADER

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 12 Sep 2026Methodology
24h volume
$180
Constituents
33
Distinct tenors
1
—
Top P(YES)
97.0%
Christos Tzolis

Outcome probabilities

33 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The yield curve presents a flat structure across all 33 constituent markets, with every position sharing an identical 269-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional curve shape. The AST category markets cluster at the lower end, ranging from 2.0% to 5.0% YES probability, while the GOAL category shows extreme variation from 1.0% to 97.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities are concentrated in the GOAL markets, where 21 of 27 individual markets trade at exactly 1.0%, representing the floor of observable pricing. The single outlier is CTZOLI8 in the AST category at 97.0%, which appears to be a complementary contract. The highest non-complementary probability is EHAALA9 at 59.0%, followed by JOAO20 at 12.0% and AISAK9 at 14.0%. The flat tenor structure across all markets indicates this is a snapshot of a single event family with uniform resolution timing rather than a term structure that would typically show temporal dynamics. The market's pricing architecture suggests it is evaluating discrete outcomes within a fixed 269-day window rather than pricing the probability of an event occurring at different future dates. The concentration of 1.0% floor pricing across most GOAL markets indicates these represent tail-risk scenarios the market considers highly unlikely, while the elevated probabilities on select names (EHAALA9, JOAO20, AISAK9) suggest the market concentrates its conviction on a narrow set of outcomes. The substantial volume concentration in EHAALA9 ($47.88), MROGER27 ($93.71), and JOAO20 ($42.15) reveals where

Generated 9/12/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

33 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Christos Tzolis lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season?: Christos Tzolis8mo97.0%$0
Will Erling Haaland lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Erling Haaland8mo62.0%$103
Will Alexander Isak lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Alexander Isak8mo14.0%$0
Will Florian Wirtz lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season?: Florian Wirtz8mo5.0%$0
Will Bruno Fernandes lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season?: Bruno Fernandes8mo4.0%$0
Will Rayan Cherki lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season?: Rayan Cherki8mo4.0%$0
Will Joao Pedro lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Joao Pedro8mo3.0%$5
Will Enzo Fernandez lead EPL in assists for the 2026-27 season?: Enzo Fernandez8mo2.0%$0
Will Bruno Fernandes lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Bruno Fernandes8mo2.0%$0
Will Benjamin Sesko lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Benjamin Sesko8mo2.0%$0
Will Viktor Gyokeres lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Viktor Gyokeres8mo2.0%$0
Will Antoine Semenyo lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Antoine Semenyo8mo1.0%$0
Will Bryan Mbeumo lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Bryan Mbeumo8mo1.0%$0
Will Cody Gakpo lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Cody Gakpo8mo1.0%$0
Will Cole Palmer lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Cole Palmer8mo1.0%$0
Will Dominic Calvert-Lewin lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Dominic Calvert-Lewin8mo1.0%$0
Will Dominic Solanke lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Dominic Solanke8mo1.0%$0
Will Eberechi Eze lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Eberechi Eze8mo1.0%$0
Will Evanilson lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Evanilson8mo1.0%$0
Will Florian Wirtz lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Florian Wirtz8mo1.0%$0
Will Hugo Ekitike lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Hugo Ekitike8mo1.0%$0
Will Igor Thiago lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Igor Thiago8mo1.0%$2
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Jean-Philippe Mateta8mo1.0%$0
Will Kai Havertz lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Kai Havertz8mo1.0%$0
Will Matheus Cunha lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Matheus Cunha8mo1.0%$33
Will Morgan Gibbs-White lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Morgan Gibbs-White8mo1.0%$0
Will Morgan Rogers lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Morgan Rogers8mo1.0%$1
Will Omar Marmoush lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Omar Marmoush8mo1.0%$1
Will Phil Foden lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Phil Foden8mo1.0%$0
Will Pedro Neto lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Pedro Neto8mo1.0%$35
Will Rayan Cherki lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Rayan Cherki8mo1.0%$0
Will Richarlison lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Richarlison8mo1.0%$0
Will Yoane Wissa lead EPL in goals for the 2026-27 season?: Yoane Wissa8mo1.0%$0

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXEPLLEADER on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 12 Sep 2026 06:22:28 GMT.